If the Rockies sign this second baseman - and make a few changes to the lineup and bullpen - the handshake line can be a common occurrence for the purple pinstripes.
For the Rockies to return to competitiveness, never mind their World Series form of 2007, they’re going to need a lot of things to break in their direction. They have to regain the defensive strength that was their signature two years ago. They need the final three starters in the rotation to provide yearlong consistency. They need to stabilize the middle innings in the bullpen. And they need to offset the loss of Matt Holliday in the lineup by increasing production at other positions.
Are any of these propositions unrealistic? I really don’t believe they are. For all their failings last year, the Rockies still have a good collection of young talent. Many players last year broke out in the second half or in limited playing time and can reasonably be expected to equal that performance over a full season in 2009. The Rox were five games over .500 from July 1 on (42-37) once they (mostly) stabilized the lineup and pitching rotation after injuries and ineffectiveness ravaged them respectively.
But… yeah, they did that with Matt Holliday.
So how do the Holliday-less Rockies make September games matter in 2009? To answer this question, I figure I’d take a look at the most pressing issues the Rockies had in 2008, and then tell you how I’d address those needs given the realistic constraints placed on Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd. If I were the GM, this is how the Rockies would put their team together in 2009.
First, we’ll take a look at what the Rockies are, as presently constructed, missing from their roster.
VACANCY: ‘Ace’.
FREE AGENT OPTIONS: CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Ben Sh… oh, come on, the Rox aren’t getting any of these guys anyway
IN-HOUSE OPTIONS: Ubaldo Jimenez
How much better is Ubaldo Jimenez going to get? His 2008 was a mixture of the tantalizing (7.8 K/9, 8.2 H/9, a 5-1, 1.84 ERA month of July) and the frustrating (4.7 BB/9). When U-Ball is throwing strikes, he’s as good as anybody the Rockies have ever had. That will, of course, be the key going forward.
I find it hard to spot trends when looking at U-Ball’s 2008 season. He won when he struck out double digits, and won when he walked twice as many as he whiffed. He threw a complete game with the help of 17 groundball outs, and seven shutout frames with only 6 outs on the ground. There’s no one blueprint to Jimenez’s success. I don’t know what to make of this, except to say I’d assume it to be a good thing that he can have success in a lot of different ways.
Entering his age 25 season, Jimenez is fully formed. His .303 BABIP from last year doesn’t suggest he was lucky to put up a 3.99 ERA and .245 OAVG in his first full big league campaign. If he can cut down on the walks, which would continue a trend from last season when his walks went from 4.9 per 9 in the first half to 4.4 per 9 in the second, there’s absolutely no reason Jimenez can’t win 16-18 games in 2009 and be the front-of-the-rotation stopper that can stare the Webb-Lincecum-Santana class of NL starters in the face and match them zero for zero.
VACANCY: Center field.
FREE AGENT OPTION: Jim Edmonds, Scott Podsednik, Mark Kotsay
IN-HOUSE OPTIONS: Ryan Spilborghs, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, Willy Taveras (for now)
The Rockies brass has already told Spilborghs to play center field this winter to prepare for the possibility of starting there on Opening Day. Since it’s unlikely Fowler will be ready for the bigs by then, and since the Rox seem to want to let Gonzalez get his feet wet at AAA and might be grooming him as an eventual heir to Brad Hawpe in right field, it would be extremely surprising if Spilly weren’t the guy manning one of the most expansive territories in all of baseball come April.
If you’re looking for the one area in which the Rockies can’t help but improve by leaps and bounds in 2009, this is it. Yeah, the number in the SB category was pretty and the defensive numbers were a positive, but Willy Taveras was as bad as one can be offensively last year and still get 479 at-bats. His 56 OPS+ almost looks like a bad joke. The real joke was that he and his .308 OBP batted leadoff 91 FREAKING TIMES. It’s hard to overstate just how much that crippled the Rockies offense.
By inserting Spilborghs into the lineup in Taveras’ place as the leadoff man in center, the Rox will swap out a career .331 OBP for a career .374 OBP. Spilly got on base at a .407 clip in part-time duty last year, drawing 38 walks in 275 plate apperances. In contrast – and this is absolutely remarkable – Taveras drew 36 walks in 538 plate appearances.
No, he doesn’t run like Willy, but just getting on base at all would be such a welcome change at the top of the order. Spilborghs has batted .296 with a .368 OBP when he has been placed in the leadoff spot in his career. And though he’s not the defensive whiz Taveras is, Spilly’s best defensive position throughout his career has been center field – he’s earned 46 Equivalent Runs with his glove in center compared with 50 in the corners combined in three seasons.
VACANCY: Second base
FREE AGENT OPTIONS: Orland Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Loretta, Ray Durham
IN-HOUSE OPTIONS: Clint Barmes, Jeff Baker, Ian Stewart?, Omar Quintanilla, Eric Young Jr.
Clint Barmes emerged from the depths of putridity to have a passable season at the keystone sack last year, but a deeper look reveals a sinister truth – he’s still not a very good hitter. Barmes took advantage of Coors Field in a big way last year – .330/.362/.570 at home, .249/.281/.363 everywhere else. His ‘platoon partner’, Baker, was even worse away from 20th and Blake – .221/.266/.382 on the road, compared to .304/.365/.536 at Coors. As a jack-of-all-trades lefty masher, Baker’s a useful part – he slugged .590 in 100 AB against southpaws last year and has slugged .569 against them in his career. But he’s not an everyday option.
If Garrett Atkins isn’t traded, Stewart might be a fit here – he didn’t embarrass himself at the position in his 12 games there in 08. And keep an eye on EY Jr. – maybe not this year, but in the future – after he lit up the Arizona Fall League this year.
VACANCY: Left-handed relief
FREE AGENT OPTIONS: Joe Beimel, Alan Embree, Ron Villone, Glendon Rusch, Eddie Guardado
IN-HOUSE OPTIONS: Uh…
This is the one-area where the Rockies are definitely going to have to spend some money. That’s not the most inspiring collection of names on that above list, and Beimel will likely price himself out of Colorado’s range if the contract given to Jeremy Affeldt ($4 million per year) is any indication. If there’s any consolation, it’s that the collection of top lefty bats in the NL West that aren’t already Rockies is at present a rather weak one – you’ve got Adrian Gonzalez, James Loney, Andre Ethier, and then… Stephen Drew? So that may slightly mitigate the need for a pure LOOGY like Villone.
VACANCY: Left field
FREE AGENT OPTIONS: Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn… and as long as we’re dreaming, I’d like a pony.
IN-HOUSE OPTIONS: Spilborghs, Seth Smith, Gonzalez, Stewart?
Spilly’s locked into center field and Gonzalez will almost certainly be exploring all that El Paso County has to offer to start the year. I like Seth Smith, but as a fourth OF/lefty bench bat, because I don’t think he’ll hit for enough power to be a regular in a corner. Then there’s Stewart, which would be the other option for the youngster should Garrett Atkins hang around at third base.
So let’s go about filling these vacancies. Here are the moves I’d make.
1. Trade Garrett Atkins to Minnesota for Delmon Young.
The Twins are about to be the second franchise in two years to decide they can do without a 22-year old who was once considered the top prospect in all of baseball. Sure, more was expected out of him than a .290 average and 10 home runs last year, but let’s not forget he’s 22 years old! There’s still room for Young to grow, and I’ll make the bet he can realize his potential as an offensive player in Denver. Knowing that Young doesn’t fit into Minnesota’s plans for the future (they’re looking at Michael Cuddyer in left field next year), I offer them a third baseman with some pop in Atkins.
Why am I looking to trade Atkins? For one, he’s a defensive cipher, one of the worst in baseball at the hot corner, and Ian Stewart will provide an instant upgrade with the glove while roughly replacing Atkins’ 2008 offensive production in the short term. Secondly, I see a decline phase coming for Garrett, and one that won’t be pretty. Garrett’s OBP has tumbled from .409 to .367 to .328 the last three years, and his homer totals have fallen from 29 to 25 to 21. He’s still got the ability to hit .300, but his walk and strikeout totals are two broken elevators hurtling in the opposite direction of each other – and the opposite direction that you want to see.
The Rockies will be a better team, in 2009 and beyond, with Ian Stewart at third base. I’m betting the Twins will look at 2008 as a down year for Garrett rather than the continuation of a trend – which it could be, granted, but I’m not optimistic. This trade settles left field for the next four seasons with a young, electrifying hitter who I think would benefit well from the tough love of new hitting coach Don Baylor. It also clears the path at third base for Stewart, who has a chance to hit 20-25 homers in 2009.
2. Trade Willy Taveras to Cincinnati for LHP Pedro Viola
The Rox don’t have any left-handed relief possibilities at the high minors at present, so that’s my top priority when shopping Taveras. Washington’s not a fit – and they seem to have cooled on Taveras anyway. The White Sox, who were reported to be interested earlier this fall, now look to be shedding veterans rather than adding them. That leaves the Reds – and Willy Taveras is absolutely a Dusty Baker kind of player. Viola, 25, had an underwhelming 2008 at AA last year, but still struck out 84 batters in 82.1 innings. The Reds moved him into the starting rotation in the minors last year, but he likely projects best as a reliever. To me, he’s a live arm worth taking a chance on for the small price of not having Willy Taveras on the team any more.
3. Sign free agents Alan Embree, Ron Villone, and Rocco Baldelli.
The Rockies outfield desperately needs a reserve right-handed bat. Baldelli would be a perfect fit. Due to his unfortunate medical circumstances, it’s virtually impossible to consider Baldelli an everyday player for the remainder of his career. But as a reserve, Baldelli would bring power and speed and the ability to handle center field in a pinch and give Brad Hawpe a day off in right field. Before he was diagnosed with the mitochondrial syndrome that causes him extreme fatigue, he was one of the exciting young talents in the game. Just because he may never play everyday doesn’t mean that talent is gone. Something along the lines of three million per year for the next three years would be where I’d hope to land Rocco and make him one of the very best fourth outfielders in baseball.
Since the left-handed reliever pipeline is so dry, I’ll take two old hands that know how to get hitters out. Embree had one of the worst years of his career last season, but lefties hit just .232 against him in 2008 and he’s shown the ability to rebound from bad years before – after a Boeing-like ERA of 7.62 in 2005, Embree posted ERAs in the threes the next two years. The 39 year-old also has a reputation for being a leader and mentor for younger pitchers. Best case scenario, he’s a lefty Matt Herges without the ability to pitch multiple innings.
Alan Embree would be a quality veteran addition to a bullpen short on southpaws. (AP/Oakland A's official website)
Villone would be my LOOGY, after he held southpaws to a .176 average in 2008. As a former starting pitcher, he’d also be able to stretch out and work multiple innings if the need arose.
With Jason Grilli, Luis Vizcaino, Manny Corpas, Taylor Buccholz and Huston Street already entrenched, Embree and Villone fill out my bullpen on one year deals. I’d rather fill out the bullpen from within, but with Casey Weathers already out for 2009, there aren’t any appetizing home-grown relievers close to the big leagues. Also, Villone and Embree combined should still make less in 2009 than Affeldt or Joe Beimel will, and unlike the latter two, will be off the books in 2010.
4. Sign free agent Mark Grudzielanek.
To paraphrase Jeffrey Lebowski, I will not abide another year of Clint Barmes as the everyday second baseman. I can handle his use as a utility guy with a modicum of pop, sure, but not as a starter. That leaves a hole at second base, and Grudz is the guy to fill it. Three reasons I like Grudzielanek:
-He’s probably only going to play one more year. He wouldn’t be looking for a long term deal, and as such wouldn’t block Eric Young Jr. or Chris Nelson from stepping forward and seizing the ‘second baseman of the future’ mantle.
-He’s steady defensively, almost like a Jamey Carroll type who won’t be spectacular but will gobble up every last ground ball you hit him and turn a neat double play.
-Grudz’s averages the last five years: .307, .294, .297, .302, .299. Mmmm, consistency.
Now, the drawbacks. Grudz tore an ankle ligament in August last year and missed the final two months. There’s no telling how it might affect his mobility this year. Also, he’s stated a preference to play for a contender. But I think with enough money I can convince Grudzielanek to stay reasonably close to the Midwest, where he’s been since going to Chicago in 2003.
Now, I’m making a lot of assumptions about players returning to form. Jeff Francis and Troy Tulowitzki are the two biggest, obviously, but their second half performances (Francis turned in six quality starts and a 3.50 ERA in his last seven starts of the season after coming off the DL, and Tulo hit .327 after his second DL stint ended on July 22) give me enough confidence to project solid rebound years. I’m also crossing my fingers a bit on the back end of the rotation, but Jorge De La Rosa’s second half was so good last year that I feel safe with him as our number four starter. Greg Smith I’m less certain of as the number five, but I feel like if he can shrink his walk rate to a number more in line with his excellent control marks in the minor leagues, he should do fine, and if he doesn’t, I think the chances are good that one of the Jason Hirsh/Greg Reynolds/Franklin Morales crowd can handle fifth starter responsibilities.
Yeah, my rose colored glasses are more purple than most, but when I look at my 2009 Rockies, I see a powerful lineup with plenty of OBP at the top of the order that should eclipse the 800 run mark. And I see a pitching staff that, assuming U-Ball improves slightly, Francis returns to form, and Cook holds the line, has a chance to be very strong 1 through 4. And I feel like my 2009 Rockies, barring some major signings made in San Francisco or Los Angeles, can absolutely win the National League West.
LINEUP:
Spilborghs, CF
Helton, 1B
Iannetta, C
Hawpe, RF
Stewart, 3B
Tulowitzki, SS
Young, LF
Grudzielanek, 2B
BENCH:
Baldelli – Fourth OF
Baker – Super-UT, lefty-killer off bench
Barmes – Middle infield reserve
Torrealba – Backup catcher
Smith – Lefty stick off the bench
ROTATION:
Jimenez, RH
Cook, RH
Francis, LH
De La Rosa, LH
Smith, LH
BULLPEN:
Grilli, RH – multi-inning, 6th/7th
Villone, LH – possible multi-inning, LOOGY
Vizcaino, RH – 6th/7th, avoid lefties as much as possible
Embree, LH – tag-team partner with Vizcaino
Corpas, RH – 7th/8th
Buccholz, RH – 7th/8th
Street, RH – Closer
Thoughts? Leave a comment – we’d love to interact with you readers.
[...] pick up a right-handed hitting outfielder since I suggested they make a play for Rocco Baldelli in this earlier post on this blog. Aside from Ryan Spilborghs, the presumed Opening Day center field, the Rockies are void of righty [...]